The smart money suggests that Italy will leave the EU. The country’s outflows are accelerating—up €118 billion ($130 billion) from just a year ago.

Why the accelerating outflows from Italy? One explanation is that people are worried about the state of the country's banks, which are suffering the consequences of bad lending, poor governance and a new euro-area oversight system that makes rescues difficult.

Another is political: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has staked his fate on a December government-reform referendum that, if it goes against him, could strengthen opponents who want to force a vote on whether Italy should remain in the common currency, a key element of the broader union. People are voting with their money.

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